15 January 2008
Seen in Israel as its staunchest ally, President George ‘Dubya’ Bush waited seven years before his first official visit to the Jewish in his ‘ mission impossible’.
Adel Darwish, on President Bush’s Middle East Tour.
Analysts, as well as parties involved, agree on one thing: It is less clear what the President would bring his hosts apart from gridlock. Analysts point out that every party in the troubled region had different aims and expectation from the American leader’s grand Middle East Tour.
Pessimists, a majority, expected nothing more from Mr. Bush than just nudging the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, which he re-started in Annapolis in November to move a few steps ahead ; and to reassure himself that America’s allies can still be rallied against Iran.
After his joint project with a Mr. Tony Blair, failed to materialise his Wilsonian vision of bringing democracy to the Arabs in a domino effect starting in Iraq, Mr. Bush saw Palestine as the door left open to walk into history books. But he has little time to leave a mark comparable to his predecessors’. President Jimmy Carter’s failure to rescue American hostages from Iran, was offset by associating him self with the Egyptian Israeli 1979 historic peace treaty.
Ronald Reagan set the scene for winning the cold war without firing a shot; while George Bush Snr is admired for liberating Kuwait from Saddam Hussein and remembered fondly by less grateful Arabs for starting the peace talks and for giving ‘ naughty’ Israel a financial smack on the wrist by freezing $10bn loan facilities.
Dubya Bush took office only days after his predecessor Bill Clinton let an Israeli Palestinian peace deal slip through his fingers, in an attempt to offset his pathetic response to al-Qaeda attack on American embassies in East Africa. Instead of uprooting the terror organisation from Afghanistan, his critics say, he comically fired a dozen or so cruise missile costing a million dollar a piece tt some Afghan terror tents worth 10 bucks.
Mr. Bush jnr, on dad’s advice, had no intention in getting his feet stuck in the ever-shifting sands of the Middle East, focusing instead on economy. But Messers Bin Laden and Zawahiri had a different idea in September 2001 forcing him into a bigger quagmire, that only a Carter like peace deal can wash its mud .
Nicked-named by the Economist as ‘Mr. Palestine’ , Mr. Bush was the first American President to commit himself to establishing a ‘ viable’ Palestinian state, within his ‘two democratic states’ vision.
He Put Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on the spot by saying he expected the two sides to sign a peace treaty before the end of the year following his January 10 talks with the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.
At the Annapolis summit Mr. Abbas, and Israel Prime Minister Ehud promised to talk fearlessly to one another about “final status” issues such as borders, Jerusalem and refugees. Mr. Bush, a man who in the words of an Arab diplomat , ‘get on and do what he has set his mind on doing, regardless of being right or wrong’; wanted to be remembered as a leader who planted the seeds of peace in the holy land; yet many seasoned Middle East observers say his plan was too ambitious to square the Palestinian Israeli circle in the time frame he set.
The president heard, from both sides their familiar complaints. While expressing gratitude for a big boost in foreign aid inspired by Annapolis and coordinate by Mr. Blair, Mr. Abbas told the President that Israel’s recent announcement of new tenders for housing in West Bank settlements, many seen as illegal in international law, jeopardises the fledgling talks. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described an expansion of Har-Homa, a settlement near Jerusalem as ‘ unhelpful’.
Mr. Olmert too made the familiar complaint about The Palestinians inability to deliver on security, which pushes Israel to take harsh measures that, in turn, makes ordinary Palestinians lives difficult, festering more hatred for Israel.
Theoretically, and in the eyes of International law, President Abbas is the lawfully elected head of what looks like a Palestinian state representing the entire nation. In reality, he only controls the West Bank while Gaza is controlled by the Islamists Hamas, who, Arabs, Israelis and Americans alike agree, backed, financed and armed by Iran and Syria to stop the very peace settlement President Bush’s tour was trying to secure.
Hamas’s refused neither to stick to agreement signed by the Palestinian Authority with Israel, nor to a deal signed with the rival Fateh for a coalition government under Saudi auspices last year, and staged a bloody coup that drove all of Mr. Abbas’s officials out of Gaza last summer.
Rockets, fired by militants from Gaza, on almost daily bases, at Israeli towns are seen by many as Hamas inspired. President Bush’s arrival was greeted by salvos of rockets fired from Gaza and a few fired by some previously unknown Islamic Organisation from Southern Lebanon, believed to be an arm of Hezbollah.
Mr. Olmert’s rating in the polls is the lowest in Israel’s 60 years history, and musters little support from the public for any move on settlements as demanded by the Palestinians and the Americans.
The Israeli public has grown suspicious of any meaningful dividends from peace agreements, whether in security or reducing military spending. Peace with Jordan has not lead to full normal relations. In Egypt, where majority of population see them selves as Nilotic Egyptians not Arabs, public opinion still hostile to Israel.
Three decades, after Israel and Egypt agreed peace , Mr. Bush, has been called upon to help repair relations between the two neighbours. Israel has lately accused Egypt of allowing the Islamists of Hamas to smuggle guns and fighters unhindered into the Gaza Strip.
Egyptian commentators, furious, accused Israel of sabotaging Egyptian relations with America. The Congress recently cut $100m of the $1.3 billion in annual military aid for America’s biggest African ally. There has been straining of Egyptian-American ties. Mr. Bush’s occasional has infrequently criticised Egypt’s appalling record on democratisation and human rights.
Egypt’s longest serving President Hosni Mubarak expressed his irritation by breaking, during Mr. Bush’s second term, his habit of paying yearly visits to the US.
In an exchange on the Egyptian Liberals forum, the moderator enquired why an Egyptian woman referred Israel as ‘ the enemy’ since Israel and Egypt had peace for 30 years, exchange ambassador, trade, and top officials’ visits?
Her reply ‘ because Israel occupies our land in Palestine’ triggered chastising posting from scores of Liberal and Nationalist Egyptians who said referring to the West Bank as ‘ our land’ by an Egyptian national was an illegal claim, under international law, on land belongs to the Palestinians.
Egyptian liberals argued that Arab Nationalists and Islamists controlling media outlets in the region harm the Palestinians by dismissing their independent entity as a nation state seeing them as just ‘ Muslims’ or ‘Arabs’ belonging to metaphorical entities like ‘ Islamic khilafa’ or one pan-Arab nation, neither of which exist in the real world since international law only recognises nation states. Liberals argue that Arab Nationalists’ and pan-Islamists’ claim would rekindle, the now dead, old statement that Palestine was a land without a people or a nation.
An Egyptian commentator last month asked his readers to put themselves in the Israeli public’s shoes: wouldn’t they be worried thinking that an independent Palestine might turn into something like Taliban ruled Afghanistan when foreign fighters Mujahedeen pour into it from all over the region claiming it as ‘ their’ Arab or Islamic land ?
There was a silent Egyptian majority, he wrote, made of businessmen, investors, small traders, professionals and hard working people who are anxious to see economic dividends from peace with the Jewish state. During Egypt first ever presidential election in September 2005 ( see ME October 05) nine of 10 who voted for Mubarak cited his policy towards peace and ‘ keeping out of war’ as a reason .The commentator’s view is shared by many, but the loud minority from the Nasserite Arab nationalists, the Islamists and leftists control most trade unions and the media, stopping professionals from dealing normally with Israel and scaring officials and diplomats into becoming hostile to normalising relation with the Jewish neighbours. Such control, that steers public opinion not only in Egypt, but in North Africa and the Middle East, turns President Bush’s peace quest into a mission impossible.
Even in the Gulf, where no one pays taxes, conservative monarchies still take notice of public opinion. With the exception of Kuwait, where the name Bush is associated with liberation, the Gulf Arab rulers have strongly disagreed with Mr. Bush policies in Iraq but share his anxieties about Iran’s ambitions. The President pledged large modern arms transfers to these countries. Annapolis conference and the , so far, success of his “surge” of American troops restoring some calm in Iraq, helped Gulf monarchies to warm up again to his policy. Their approach to Iran by inviting its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to address the GCC annual summit in Doha and Saudi Arabia hosting him during the haj pilgrimage to Mecca, still haven’t paid dividends yet. Some of Mr. Bush’s advisers need to reassure themselves that the Gulf Arabs have not gone wobbly on Iran. They worry that Arab allies, especially those with large Shia population, are now arguing that Iran can be better managed by persuasion- and economic pressure- than by threat. Success with an Israeli Palestinian peace, Mr. Bush hopes, can help build an anti-Iran bloc. ————————————————————————————————————————————————Copyright © Mideastnews & Adel Darwish 2008 All rights reserved. No part of this site may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means or used for any business purpose without the written consent of the publisher. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained herein is as accurate as possible, the publisher cannot accept responsibility for any consequences arising from its use. ———————————————————————— ————————————————————————
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